Showing posts with label BabyCare. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BabyCare. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

USANA Second Quarter 2014 Earnings - Questions USANA Should Answer To Investors and Their Associates

USANA Health Sciences released their 2014 second quarter financial results. I would like to point out a few observations.

- USANA claims to now restrict associates purchases to within the country they reside. I believe this is in light of the fact they have had thousands possibly hundreds of thousands of USANA associates counted in their Hong Kong market that actually live in mainland China. This circumvents China's ban on multilevel marketing. USANA allowed all of these members to sign up in USANA's MLM using the SAME Hong Kong address (even though they actually lived in the mainland). Since USANA instructed these members to use a phoney address from Hong Kong, USANA knew this was wrong and violated foreign laws. Only a rat would construct such a circumvention.

I would love for a stock analyst to ask during the conference call "How many USANA associates switched to become Babycare associates?"


- USANA's Greater China sales declined year over year by $3.3 million. However, their active associates increased by 22,000 (102,000 to 125,000). This does not jive with historical patterns since there is a very direct correlation between the sales figure and the number of associates. So how is it that there is a 21% increase in the number of active associates yet a 4% decline in sales in the Greater China region? I have two theories!

Theory 1) 
Hong Kong USANA associates have decreased while mainland China Babycare associates have increased and I believe a USANA associate spends a lot more money upfront to activate their business center(s). USANA associates participating in the MLM pyramid scheme have incentives to purchase excess product (Professional Starter Kit costs $1250) in order to partake in many gimmicks that they are led to believe will help their chances of succeeding (Platinum Pace Setter, Matching Bonus, Contests, etc...). This is all based on the fact that upline associates will get commissions from their downline's spending spree.

Babycare associates do not have downlines and do not collect any commission from the personal product purchases made by fellow Babycare associates. So there is no incentive to spend a lot of product that they aren't going to sell anyway.

Theory 2)
Assuming USANA is making all Hong Kong associates who actually live in mainland China switch over to Babycare, USANA may have actually counted the same individual twice! Once for Hong Kong and once for Babycare.

I would love for a stock analyst to ask during the conference call "Did you switch Hong Kong associates over to Babycare associates and did you 'accidentally' count the same person twice? I ask this because it doesn't make sense that you have a 21% increase in active associates yet experience a 4% decline in sales."

And for the sake of the world, disclose the number of Babycare associates! The sales from that market represents more than 10% of overall sales. Therefore you should be required to disclose the number of associates you have in that market.

Lastly, I would like USANA to disclose a couple very simple numbers:
1. Number of active Babycare associates
2. Amount of commission paid to Babycare associates
3. Percentage of product purchased by Babycare associates that was retailed to the general public


Tuesday, April 29, 2014

USANA Earnings Release for Q1 2014 - Analysts Must Demand USANA Disclose Number of Active Babycare Distributors in China.

USANA Health Sciences releases their first quarter 2014 earnings after the markets close today. I beleive it will be as usual, revenues up and active associate numbers up in select areas (I predict they will recruit 400,000 new associates this year alone). What USANA has refused to do for several years now is disclose the number of Babycare distributors. Babycare is a company USANA purchased that already had a direct selling license in mainland China. Multilevel Marketing (MLM) is banned in China so Babycare uses a single-level structure and no recruiting into downlines.

For several years USANA had allowed Chinese Nationals to be recruited into USANA distributor downlines in markets outside mainland China, such as Hong Kong. These illegally recruited distributors were given a phoney address and even phoney phone number. In fact, they were using the same address and USANA distributor genealogy reports show it by the thousands. This caused the Hong Kong active associate numbers to grow to levels that were suspicious: 1 in 100 in Hong Kong were USANA distributors?! Over the past several quarters now, Hong Kong active associates and revenues have declined greatly. USANA claims people from mainland China are no longer joining in Hong Kong. Yeah right...

I suspect USANA is simply fudging their numbers and the auditors have no way to check it. Since USANA allowed phoney addresses to be used thousands of times by Chinese Nationals, I would not put it passed them to simply report the number of Hong Kong USANA distributors minus those that had resided in mainland China. In other words, those from mainland China are still signed up as USANA distributors and in a downline structure, but are simply not being counted in Hong Kong anymore. Nobody can audit the genealogy structure, except the feds.I believe the revenues from Hong Kong are also simply being reported as Babycare revenue.

The main reason for my suspicion has been the fact USANA stopped reporting the number of Babycare associates. Analysts have repeatedly asked USANA to disclose the numbers of Babycare associates during several quarterly conference calls and every time USANA refused to disclose the figures.

My list of USANA disclosures are quite simple this time: DISCLOSE THE NUMBER OF BABYCARE ACTIVE ASSOCIATES.

While you're at it, disclose the number of United States associates, the number of Professional Startup Packages sold, the percent of net revenues that came from USANA associate's initial product purchase used to "activate" their first business center(s), the number of newly recruited associates, and the number of active associates that have been with USANA for more than 2 years.

(I have no stock position with USANA, never have and never will. I have no financial position whatsoever. I gain nothing from my blog. I have never been a USANA associate or an associate from any MLM company.)

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

USANA First Quarter Earnings for 2013 - What About Those Undisclosed Statistics? What Should USANA Disclose?

USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (NYSE:USNA) releases their first quarter 2013 financial earnings after the market closes today. Through my research over the years I have found the following statistics about USANA which I believe are pretty accurate and should be considered while reviewing USANA's quarterly result:

Over the last 21 years of USANA's existance, they have recruited about 1.5 million associates.

Over 99% of USANA's associates never made a profit, and instead lost money.

At the beginning of the quarter, USANA had about 247,000 associates who have purchased product during the previous three months. This means 83% of USANA's associates have stopped doing business with USANA when considering the total ever recruited.

Roughly one third of USANA associates, or 82,000 are “active associates” as defined by their policies and procedures (having personally purchased over $100 worth of product during a four week period in order to qualify for commissions). This contradicts their 247,000 active associates as defined and reported in their SEC filings (having simply purchased a USANA product).

USANA recruited about 60,000 new associates during the first quarter of 2013. In order for new associates to begin, they must activate atleast one business center which requires over $200 worth of products to be personally purchased by the associate on top of a $29.95 startup fee. This amounts to about $13.8 million just for these 60,000 new associates to get started.

The majority of USANA associates are not permitted to resell product to retail customers because they are classified as "non-distributing" associate. These same associates are still required to personally purchase product over $100 worth of product every four weeks as part of their obligation toward USANA if they want to be eligible to collect a commission as well as grow and keep their downline and/or preferred customer purchase volume points. This is a blatant case of inventory loading as these associates are stuck with product they are not allowed to sell.

USANA classifies a “full-time” associate as one who has reached the leadership rank of “Gold Director” and up. After 21 years in business, USANA has about 2900 full-time associates which is only 0.8% of their active associates as defined by their SEC filings.

The majority of distributor incentives paid to their distributors goes to this top 0.8% which are Gold Directors and up. Two thirds of USANA associates never received a single penny in commissions.

There aren't enough preferred customers to cover the 5 customer rule (anti-pyramiding rule) to justify paying commissions to the majority of those associates who collected a commission. Most associates who collected a commission are still losing money.

I believe there are more Chinese Nationals who are USANA associates (illegally participating in Multi-Level Marketing) than there are Chinese Nationals who are Babycare Associates (legally participating in Single-Level Marketing). I believe Chinese Nationals joining USANA account for the majority of USANA's growth in both sales and distributorships as the recruiting in mainland China into USANA's MLM has been in overdrive. I believe these Chinese Nationals are counted toward growth in many of USANA's MLM territories.


USANA should disclose during their first quarter earnings conference call:
  1. the number of associates that received a commission during the quarter and of those how many are non-distributing associates. Dividing the number of reported Preferred Customers by 5 will give you the maximum number of non-distributing associates USANA can pay a commission to.
  2. Number of newly recruited associates during the quarter.
  3. Number of full-time associates currently active with USANA.
  4. The percentage of distributor incentives paid to these full-time associates.
  5. The number of active associates as defined by their policies and procedures.
  6. The actual associate turnover rate (instead of simply stating that it is high).
  7. The percentage of net sales that was the direct result of associates activating or keeping active their business centers.
  8. The amount of sales USANA received as a result of new associates purchasing a $1250 professional enrollment package.
  9. Number of associates that cancelled their distributorship.
  10. Number of USANA distributors (not Babycare) living in mainland China.
  11. Number of associates who share the same home address as two or more other associates (possible Chinese Nationals using an address from Hong Kong or other USANA territories).

Saturday, March 23, 2013

An Untrue Statement in USANA's 2012 10-K Financial Statement - "Target of False and Misleading Statements Regarding China"

USANA makes untrue statement in their 2012 Form 10-K SEC filing. USANA stated the following:
"More recently, in November 2012, we were again the target of false and misleading statements concerning our business practices, particularly in China and Hong Kong. This adverse publicity also adversely impacted the market price of our stock and caused insecurity among our Associates. There can be no assurance that we will not be subject to adverse publicity or negative public perception in the future or that such adverse publicity will not have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations."
USANA's claim about being the target of “false and misleading statements concerning our business practices, particularly in China and Hong Kong” is a lie. USANA does in fact illegally recruit Chinese Nationals from mainland China into USANA's multilevel marketing compensation plan through Hong Kong (and possibly other USANA territories), which is a direct violation of China's law. Dave Wentz even admitted Chinese Nationals are signing up in the MLM compensation plan during the July 27, 2011 financial conference call:

John San Marco at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC asks:
“Do you know what the percentage of your Hong Kong associates that are actually Chinese nationals?”

Dave Wentz, CEO of USANA Health Sciences responds after trying to avoid answering the question:
We definitely have a number of people who are building in Hong Kong. We do not have a percentage or have a number that we could point to with any accuracy.
This violation of the law is not just the problem from a couple associates, but an organized circumvention of Chinese foreign laws conducted by USANA. This violation could (and should) cause USANA to lose their direct selling license in mainland China and possibly face serious fines by regulatory agencies both domestic and foreign. Again, USANA's CEO Dave Wentz already admitted the fraud exists.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

USANA May Have Misled Shareholders During Fourth Quarter Earnings 2012 Conference Call Regarding BabyCare, China, and Hong Kong

USANA Health Sciences, Inc. (USNA) appears to have misled shareholders during their fourth quarter 2012 earnings conference call on February 6, 2013 as well as several other calls in the past.


When USANA purchased BabyCare Ltd. in August 2010 (an already established direct selling (single level marketing) company in mainland China) it added 12,000 Active Associates and 7000 Active Preferred Customers to USANA's "Greater China" region. Over the last couple years USANA has attributed any of Hong Kong declining active associates to BabyCare, claiming that leaders would re-evaluate where to go (USANA Hong Kong, or China BabyCare).

Today (over two years later), BabyCare has about 17,000 Active Associates and about 2000 Active Preferred Customers. That's a net gain of ZERO customers since USANA purchased BabyCare! So all this talk about BabyCare being a hot market is simply untrue. All this talk about BabyCare siphoning off Hong Kong distributors was a farce. Truth be told, BabyCare is an utter failure and has virtually no growth.

I have datamined USANA's BabyCare distributor IDs and found there to be 38,000 issued ID numbers as of September 2012. If there are only 17,000 active associates in Babycare right now, then over half of all the associates recruited in BabyCare have quit since USANA purchased them.

As for Preferred Customers, what a utter failure. USANA doesn't explicitly state what the figure is this quarter, but since there are 4000 total preferred customers in Greater China, it seems like a safe bet that BabyCare accounts for 2000 active preferred customers. If this figure is accurate, then Babycare has lost 70% of their active preferred customers.

That's a huge problem if Active Associates in Babycare are required to have a certain number of customers to be qualified to earn a commission check.


What is hot right now is the growth in Hong Kong, which is largely attributed to Chinese Nationals from mainland China being illegally recruited into USANA's MLM Hong Kong market (instead of in BabyCare). They are recruited from mainland China and put in USANA under an address from someone living in Hong Kong. This way Auditors, shareholders, and federal regulators can be fooled. USANA allows this to happen and even has a policy set up that allows for over 15 distributors to share the same home address and the same credit card when signing up with USANA.

Stock analysts refuse to address these BabyCare issues with USANA and really don't seem to have a clue about what USANA is doing in China.